Grains

Grain prices this morning are lower with Jul corn -2.00 (-0.53%), Jul soybeans -9.25 (-0.97%)), and Jul wheat -7.75 (-1.45%). Grain prices on Tuesday closed higher on a supportive USDA WASDE report: Jul corn +10.25 (+2.79%), Jul soybeans +0.25 (+0.03%), Jul wheat +20.00 (+3.89%). Corn rallied after the USDA cut its U.S. 2018/19 ending stocks estimate to a 5-year low of 1.577 bln bu, below expectations of 1.652 bln bu, and after they cut their global 2018/19 corn ending stocks estimate to a 6-year low of 154.7 MMT, below expectations of 157.5 MMT. Soybeans moved higher after the USDA unexpectedly cut its U.S. 2018/19 soybean ending stocks estimate to 385 million bu, less than expectations for an increase to 440 mln bu. Gains in soybeans were limited after the USDA raised its global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks estimate to 87.0 MMT, above expectations of 86.8 MMT. Wheat closed higher after the USDA unexpectedly cut its U.S. 2018/19 wheat ending stocks estimate to a 4-year low of 946 mln bu, below expectations of an increase to 957 mln bu. On the negative side the USDA unexpectedly raised its global 2018/19 wheat ending stocks estimate to 266.2 MMT, above expectations for a cut to 263.4 MMT. Jul corn fell to a 3-1/2 month nearest-futures low Monday and Jul soybeans dropped to a 5-month low on bearish factors that included (1) favorable growing conditions in the Midwest that should boost early development of the just planted U.S. corn and soybean crops, and (2) lingering trade concerns that may lead to reduced foreign demand for U.S. grain supplies. A bullish factor for wheat was the action by IKAR on Friday cut its Russian 2018/19 wheat crop estimate to 71.5 MMT from a previous estimate of 73.5 MMT, due to excessive dryness. A bearish factor for wheat is increased wheat exports from Russia that may curb foreign demand for more-expensive U.S. wheat supplies with Russian wheat exports from Jun 1-May 23 up 47% y/y to 37 MMT. China's National Grain and Oils Information Center recently projected China 2018 soybean imports may decline by -1 MMT to 95 MMT, the first decline in 15 years.

Monday's USDA Crop Progress report showed 77% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Jun 10, down -1 point w/w but +10 points ahead of last year. The Crop Progress report also showed 74% of the U.S. soybean crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of Jun 10, down -1 point w/w but +8 points ahead of last year at the same time. 38% of the U.S winter wheat was in good/excellent condition as of Jun 10, up -1 point w/w and down from 50% last year. The NWS reported that the wheat-growing region from Texas to southwest Kansas had the driest Dec-Feb on record.